「ノーガード経済論戦」対「Economics Lovers Live」 ― 2006/04/04 03:07
目的
声の出るゴキブリまだ～の件|Economics Lovers Liveで提示された，田中秀臣先生のやられている二つのブログ（「」・「Economics Lovers Live」）においてどちらの認知度が高いのか，また「ノーガード経済論戦」が終了し（3月29日），その最終回において「Economics Lovers Live」の再告知が行われたことが，購読数に影響を与えたのかを調査する。
以後，場合により下記の省略表記を用いている。
- ノーガード
- ノーガード経済論戦
- ノーガード（RSS）
- ノーガード経済論戦のRSSフィード
- Economics
- Economics Lovers Live
- Economics（RSS）
- Economics Lovers LiveのRSSフィード
方法
対象
はてなアンテナはユーザ（IDにて識別）が登録した任意のURIの更新状況を知らせるサービスである。また，はてなRSSは任意のRSSの更新状況を知らせるサービスである。
はてなアンテナはGoogleを利用した検索サービスを提供しており，検索結果は各人のはてなアンテナにリンクしている。このリンクはユーザIDを含んでおり，ID毎の登録数の把握が可能になる。
はてなRSSは，フィードのURLにより，そのフィードをに関する情報を取得できる。
はてなアンテナとはてなRSSを利用することにより，重複を含まない登録者数の算定が可能となるため，はてなブックマーク並びにはてなRSSを題材に調査を行った。
調査方法
以下の方法で，「Economics Lovers Live」および「ノーガード経済論戦」の状況（アンテナのみ・RSSのみ・アンテナとRSSの混合）ごとの登録数を算出した。
A.はてなアンテナのデータ取得
- Webブラウザにてhttp://a.hatena.ne.jp/を表示
- 同ページの検索ウインドウにてオプションを“アンテナに登録されたページ全体から”にして，「Economics Lovers Live」および「ノーガード経済論戦」を検索。
- 2．の結果，表示されたページの最終ページに移動し下部の“検索結果をすべて表示するには、ここから再検索してください。”に示されるリンク先に移動。
- 3.において表示された結果およびその関連リンク先において表示→ソース取得を繰り返す
- ぞれぞれのソースをデータベースソフト（以下，DBソフト）に登録
- DBにて「<a class=l href」から「</a>」までの文字列を抽出
B.はてなRSSのデータ取得
- WebブラウザにてはてなRSSの「Economics Lovers Live」および「ノーガード経済論戦」の登録状況のページを表示
- 1.にて表示されたページのソースを取得
- ぞれぞれのソースをDBソフト（ファイルメーカPro7Developer）に登録
- 「<a href="http://r.hatena.ne.jp/」から「</a>」までの文字列を抽出
C.算出
- A.およびB.にて登録されたソースよりDBソフトにおいてIDを取得（「hatena.ne.jp/○○/」の「○○」の部分）
- ID毎にノーガード・ノーガード（RSS)・Economics・Economics（RSS)）の購読状況を登録（IDが重複している場合一つにまとめて登録した）
- 2．のデータから購読状況ごとの登録数を算出
またRSSエントリページにて“このフィードの注目エントリー”の一覧を取得した。
データ取得に使用したWebブラウザ及びページ
使用ソフト
- Webブラウザ（バージョン）
- Firefox（Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; ja-JP; rv:1.9a1) Gecko/20060228 Firefox/1.6a1）
- DBソフト
- ファイルメーカPro7Developer Windows版
取得したページのURI
- はてなブックマークにおける「Economics Lovers Live」の検索結果のURI（1ページ目）
- http://www.google.co.jp/custom?q=Economics+Lovers+Live&num=100&hl=ja&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=EUC-JP&inlang=ja&c2coff=1&client=pub-4438296558807254&channel=8667857691&cof=FORID:1%3BL:http://a.hatena.ne.jp/images/hatena_antenna.gif%3BLH:40%3BLW:204%3BGL:1%3BBGC:FFFFFF%3BT:%23000000%3BLC:%230000ff%3BVLC:%23800080%3BALC:%230000ff%3BGALT:%23008000%3BGFNT:%230000ff%3BGIMP:%230000ff%3BDIV:%2306289B%3BLBGC:1841CE%3BAH:center%3BS:http://a.hatena.ne.jp/%3B&domains=a.hatena.ne.jp&sitesearch=a.hatena.ne.jp&start=0&sa=N&filter=0
- はてなブックマークにおける「ノーガード経済論戦」の検索結果のURI（1ページ目）
- http://www.google.co.jp/custom?q=%E3%83%8E%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AC%E3%83%BC%E3%83%89%E7%B5%8C%E6%B8%88%E8%AB%96%E6%88%A6&num=100&hl=ja&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=EUC-JP&inlang=ja&c2coff=1&client=pub-4438296558807254&channel=8667857691&cof=FORID:1%3BL:http://a.hatena.ne.jp/images/hatena_antenna.gif%3BLH:40%3BLW:204%3BGL:1%3BBGC:FFFFFF%3BT:%23000000%3BLC:%230000ff%3BVLC:%23800080%3BALC:%230000ff%3BGALT:%23008000%3BGFNT:%230000ff%3BGIMP:%230000ff%3BDIV:%2306289B%3BLBGC:1841CE%3BAH:center%3BS:http://a.hatena.ne.jp/%3B&domains=a.hatena.ne.jp&sitesearch=a.hatena.ne.jp&start=200&sa=N&filter=0
- はてなRSSにおける「Economics Lovers Live」の登録状況のページ
- http://r.hatena.ne.jp/feed/http://reflation.bblog.jp/index.rdf
- はてなRSSにおける「ノーガード経済論戦」の登録状況のページ
- http://r.hatena.ne.jp/feed/http://blog.goo.ne.jp/hwj-tanaka/index.rdf
結果
| 購読対象 | 購読形態 | 3/26 | 3/30 | 3/31 | 4/1 | 4/2 | 4/3 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economics | Economicsのみ | 69 | 69 | 69 | 69 | 63 | 60 | 55 |
| Economics（RSS）のみ | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | |
| Economics+Economics（RSS） | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
| ノーガード | ノーガードのみ | 31 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 33 |
| ノーガード（RSS）のみ | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | |
| ノーガード+ノーガード（RSS） | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 両方 | ノーガード+Economics | 42 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 49 | 51 | 57 |
| ノーガード（RSS）+Economics（RSS） | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | |
| Economics+ノーガード（RSS） | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| ノーガード+Economics（RSS） | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Economics+ノーガード（RSS）+Economics（RSS） | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| ノーガード+Economics+Economics（RSS） | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| ノーガード+Economics+ノーガード（RSS） | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| ノーガード+ノーガード（RSS）+Economics（RSS） | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| ノーガード+Economics+ノーガード（RSS）+Economics（RSS） | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
| 合計 | 223 | 224 | 227 | 228 | 228 | 226 | - | |
登録者数はその購読形態で購読しているID数であり，重複はない。
| 購読対象 | 3/26 | 3/30 | 3/31 | 4/1 | 4/2 | 4/3 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ノーガード | 86 | 87 | 89 | 89 | 95 | 96 | 102 |
| Economics | 130 | 130 | 131 | 131 | 130 | 129 | 130 |
| ノーガード（RSS） | 61 | 60 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 |
| Economics（RSS） | 46 | 45 | 45 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 |
表2の登録者数はその対象を購読しているID数であり，対象間での重複がある。
例えば，ノーガード＋Economicsという購読形態では，ノーガードとEconomicsの購読数はそれぞれ1となる。
| エントリタイトル | 3/26 | 3/30 | 3/31 | 4/1 | 4/2 | 4/3 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 切込隊長『中央公論』論説 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| リフレと左翼：石橋湛山と山形浩生 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| ああ、やっぱり分捕ったか（ニート論の弊害） | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| わかったべ じゃない | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| インタゲ賛成した（昨日まで）衆議議員リスト暫定版（検索して疲労した版） | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Economics Lovers Live/top | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 稲葉振一郎『モダンのクールダウン』 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| 気乗りがしない話：世間知と専門知 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| ある文化の日の対話 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 「世論の動向で経済学の正当性を問うだとか・・・」 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| さて注目の日がきましたが | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| この無視はいただけない | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 【ネタ】シニョレッジと生計保険 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 公平賃金仮説リターンズ | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 企業訪問の効用 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 書評：松嶋敦茂『功利主義は生き残るか』 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 『マルクスの使いみち』 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| ニート論壇の見取り図作成中 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 【ガンダム】イーガン『順列都市』をルーカス批判風に読む【経済学】 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| リフレ通はこれを読むのだ | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| エントリタイトル | 3/26 | 3/30 | 3/31 | 4/1 | 4/2 | 4/3 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 第４回 見失われた「第３の道」 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| 教訓を活かせないのはなぜか？ | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| なんのための郵政民営化か？ | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 出口政策が熱い？！（その２） | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| バーナンキのインフレターゲット論の復習 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 玄田有史『14歳からの仕事道』（理論社）＋ニート論の弊害（再録） | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 2005年度上半期 私の目の前を通り過ぎていった経済本たち（ベスト・ワースト） | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 田中秀臣の「ノーガード経済論戦」 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| エコノミストたちを分析する | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 量的緩和解除以後の日本経済 II | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 量的緩和解除以後の日本経済 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 裏声で語れ、小泉構造改革 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 野口旭『エコノミストたちの歪んだ水晶玉』東洋経済新報社 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| バーナンキFRB議長就任と日本のリフレ | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 跡田直澄『郵貯消滅』（PHP研究所）他を読む | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 第２回 ロナルド・ドーア『日本型資本主義と市場主義の衝突』 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 都留重人氏とは誰だったのかII | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 出口政策が熱い？！（その1） | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 第4回 愛をめぐる経済論戦 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 山田優嬢のセレブ価値は保たれたか？ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| パターン | 3/26 | 3/30 | 3/31 | 4/1 | 4/2 | 4/3 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economics追加 | - | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| Economics追加 | - | - | - | Economics（RSS） | Economics（RSS） | Economics（RSS） | Economics（RSS） |
| Economics追加 | - | - | - | - | - | Economics（RSS） | Economics（RSS） |
| Economics追加 | - | - | - | - | - | - | Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | - | - | ノーガード | ノーガード | ノーガード |
| ノーガード追加 | - | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） |
| ノーガード追加 | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | - | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | - | Economics | Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード追加 | - | ノーガード | ノーガード | ノーガード | ノーガード | ノーガード | ノーガード |
| ノーガード追加 | - | - | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） | ノーガード（RSS） |
| ノーガード追加→削除 | - | - | ノーガード | ノーガード | ノーガード | - | - |
| 形態変更 | ノーガード+Economics+ノーガード（RSS）+Economics（RSS） | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics | ノーガード+Economics |
| ノーガード削除 | ノーガード（RSS） | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Economics追加→削除 | - | - | Economics | Economics | Economics | - | - |
| Economics追加→削除 | - | - | - | Economics | Economics | - | - |
| Economics追加→削除 | - | - | - | Economics（RSS） | Economics（RSS） | - | - |
| ノーガード・Economics削除 | ノーガード+Economics | - | - | - | - | - | - |
ユーザ毎の購読形態で変化のあったものを表示した。
考察
今回調査した数はあくまでも登録されている数であり，読まれていることを保障するものではない（登録したものをすべて見るとは限らない為，またはてなアンテナ及びはてなRSSそのものを見ていないことも考えられる為）。
表1および表2をまとめると以下の表が導ける。
| 購読対象 | 3/26 | 3/30 | 3/31 | 4/1 | 4/2 | 4/3 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ノーガード | 135 | 136 | 139 | 139 | 145 | 146 | 152 |
| Economics | 159 | 159 | 160 | 161 | 160 | 159 | 160 |
| 両方 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 77 | 79 | 85 |
| 購読形態 | 3/26 | 3/30 | 3/31 | 4/1 | 4/2 | 4/3 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ノーガードだけ | 64 | 65 | 67 | 67 | 68 | 67 | 67 |
| Economicsだけ | 88 | 88 | 88 | 89 | 83 | 80 | 75 |
| 両方 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 77 | 79 | 85 |
| 計 | 223 | 224 | 227 | 228 | 228 | 226 | 227 |
さらに表7より もう一方を登録していない割合を導くことが出来る。
| 購読形態 | 3/26 | 3/30 | 3/31 | 4/1 | 4/2 | 4/3 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ノーガード登録者のうちEconomicsを登録してないID数の割合 | 47.4% | 47.8% | 48.2% | 48.2% | 46.9% | 45.9% | 44.1% |
| Economics登録者のうちノーガードを登録してないID数の割合 | 55.3% | 55.3% | 55.0% | 55.3% | 51.9% | 50.3% | 46.9% |
片方だけ登録者数/(片方だけ登録者数＋両方登録者数）
これらの結果より以下のことがわかる
- 「Economics Lovers Live」の方が「ノーガード経済論戦」より登録者が多い。
- 登録者の半数はそのほかのブログを登録してない。
- 「ノーガード経済論戦」最終エントリ登録（3月29日）後に「ノーガード経済論戦」の登録者は増加している。
- 「ノーガード経済論戦」のみの登録者数はあまり変化していないが「Economics Lovers Live」のみの登録者は減少している（併読者が増加している）。
- ノーガード経済論戦のみの登録者層は経済以外の話題に興味が薄い。
調査前には
- 3月29日にノーガード経済論戦終了の最終エントリが投稿された。
- その最終エントリにおいてEconomics Loveres Liveへの言及があった。
という事を踏まえて以下の予想をたてていた。
- 終了に伴い「ノーガード経済論戦」登録数は減少する。
- 「ノーガード経済論戦登録者」の減少数分だけ，「Economics Lovers Live」登録数が増加する。
- 同様に両方購読が減り，その分「Economics Lovers Live」登録数が増加する。
しかし，実際には「ノーガード経済論戦」登録数の増加が見られ，特に「Economics Lovers Live」登録者に増加が見られた。
このことの理由として以下のことを考えてみたが説得力はなく，新たに登録した人の日記の調査等，追加の調査が必要であろう。
- 「ノーガード経済論戦」の最終エントリ（「量的緩和解除後の日本経済III」）があまり参照されておらず，今後の更新がない（＝あんてな・RSSに登録する意味がない）ことへの認識が薄いのではないか。（→「Economics Lovers Live」登録者における増加の理由にはならない）
- 終了記念登録
- はてなアンテナのメカニズム
結論
認知度では「Economic Lovers Live」の方が上であった。しかし最終エントリ後に「ノーガード経済論戦」の登録数増加が（特に「Economics Lovers Live」登録者に）見られた。従って「ノーガード戦法」は「知の韓国麺」に落ち込んでしまうことへの対抗策として有効であると思われる。
謝辞
田中先生勝手に題材にして申し訳ありませんでした。m(_ _)m
コメント
_ 韓リフ ― 2006/04/20 00:26
ところが影響力調査をするとノーガードは5万台、ELLeはたった3000台と大差です。ELLeのブログははてな系ブログみたいに自動的にリンクしたりしないからそこが弱点かも。ノーガードはやってるときもそんなに影響力があるようには思えませんでしたが、さすがに老舗なので業界の注目度は高くお仕事がいろいろきますた。ELLeの方はみなさんとの交流と喧嘩ｗの場ですね。（＾＾）
_ ITOK ― 2006/04/22 02:51
影響力調査（のカラクリ）につきましては，長くなりましたので新たにエントリを建てました。
ELLeではありがたく交流させていただいておりますｗ（レムのところでは外してしまい申し訳なく思っておりますｍ（＿ ＿）m）。
エコノミストミシュランの方も期待しています。
ELLeではありがたく交流させていただいておりますｗ（レムのところでは外してしまい申し訳なく思っておりますｍ（＿ ＿）m）。
エコノミストミシュランの方も期待しています。
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_ Plavix. - 2009/10/08 10:04
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